CIO Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Week of Nov 28st, 2022 By Citi Wealth Insights
Five Charts That Matter
Despite relevant data that suggests inflation is abating, the yield curve, growth of money supply, home sales declines, and historical patterns of bear markets all point to a meaningful slowdown coming in 2023.
The debate between those who believe recession is avoidable and those who do not is unresolved. To us, whether it is called a recession or not is less relevant than the fact that the Fed is raising rates, withdrawing liquidity and ignoring signs of diminishing inflation.
2022 Mid-Year Outlook | 20 June, 2022
Mid-Year Outlook: Investing in the afterglow of a boom
The first few months of 2022 have been trying.
With the pandemic not yet over, rising inflation, interest rate hikes, slowing growth and geopolitical tensions have heightened the uncertainty. Amid these conditions, the question we hear more than any other is “what should I do now?”
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With the pandemic not yet over, rising inflation, interest rate hikes, slowing growth and geopolitical tensions have heightened the uncertainty. Amid these conditions, the question we hear more than any other is “what should I do now?”
Outlook 2022
The expansion will endure: Seeking sustained returns
The hope that 8 billion vaccinations and widespread population exposure to the Delta variant would be sufficient to subdue COVID-19 turned out to be false when Omicron struck. At the same time, Citi analysts became convinced that, for 2022 and 2023, the global economic recovery that is now underway will endure and ultimately outlast the pandemic. In short, we believe the world economy and equity markets have not peaked and have room to grow.
Citi analysts do not believe there will be a rapid return to normal anytime soon. In fact, there is a new normal evolving now that is central to our positive economic outlook. This new normal consists of the establishments of a data-enabled, decentralized, flexible and highly efficient economic order. Within it, the accelerated adoption of technology across every industry and every business is a necessity.
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Citi analysts do not believe there will be a rapid return to normal anytime soon. In fact, there is a new normal evolving now that is central to our positive economic outlook. This new normal consists of the establishments of a data-enabled, decentralized, flexible and highly efficient economic order. Within it, the accelerated adoption of technology across every industry and every business is a necessity.
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